How the Prediction Works
The tool uses an "effective power" model. Each character's effective power equals attack x (1 + matchup bonus%) divided by the opponent's defense. Win rate is then the share of total effective power between the two sides, so identical stats and bonuses always produce 50/50. The same simplified model is used widely for one-on-one matchup analysis in fighting games, MOBAs, and SRPGs.
Setting Matchup Bonuses
Use a -50% to +50% range. +25% represents a clear advantage from elemental, role, or kit-based counters, while +50% is reserved for hard counter picks. Negative values model the opposite case. Each game has its own counter spread - check the official chart or community statistics to set realistic numbers. If both bonuses are 0, the calculator returns a pure stats-only win rate.
Limits and Real Use
The model ignores player skill, combo execution, and map design - factors that often swing real PvP by 15 percentage points or more. Treat the output as a directional indicator: which side has the edge, not the exact win rate. When the result lands below 30% or above 70%, switching counter picks or avoiding the matchup is usually the right call.
FAQ
Set defense to 1 for both sides and the proportional result still works.
Leave the matchup bonus at 0% for both. The output then reflects pure attack vs defense.
Roughly. Enter each team's average attack, defense, and matchup bonus - the result is directional only.