How to Use the Battle Royale Win Tracker
Track your win probability in any battle royale game. Enter your total games and first-place finishes to instantly calculate your win rate, how many games until your next expected win, and the probability of winning within a set number of games.
Expected games is based on the geometric distribution. At a 5% win rate, you can expect a win every 20 games on average. The N-game probability uses P = 1 β (1 β win rate)^N, which assumes each game is statistically independent.
The "50% probability" field shows how many games you need to play before there is a greater-than-50% chance of at least one win. At a 5% win rate, that is approximately 14 games. Works for PUBG, Fortnite, Apex Legends, and any similar title.
Frequently Asked Questions
A win count of 0 makes probability undefined. Enter at least 1 win to calculate a meaningful expected value.
Using the geometric distribution: P = 1 - (1 - win rate)^N. This assumes every game is independent and your skill level is constant over time.
Yes β count each squad win as one first-place finish, just as you would in solo mode.