How to use the win-back campaign ROI calculator
Win-back campaigns look efficient because a reactivation email costs little. This calculator takes you from return rate through net gain to ROI, and it states plainly in the result label that the headline ROI is not incremental โ some lapsed customers would have returned with no campaign at all.
ROI is computed on contribution, not revenue. Discounts and shipping scale with sales, so treating revenue as profit overstates the result. Enter your own contribution margin rather than accepting a default.
The control group return rate is optional. If you ran a holdout โ a slice of the lapsed list that got nothing โ enter its return rate and the tool adds incremental returns and incremental ROI. When the control rate equals or beats the treated rate, the incremental figure drops to zero or below and the label says so instead of hiding it.
Time horizon matters too. If reactivated customers keep buying, using only their first purchase understates the campaign. Try running it twice โ once with the first order value, once with several months of revenue per customer โ and report both as a range.
Frequently Asked Questions
Some lapsed customers come back on their own without any campaign. Entering that rate gives you incremental returns and incremental ROI โ only the lift the campaign actually created. Leave it blank and the label states the ROI shown is not incremental.
Discounts, shipping, and payment fees rise along with revenue. Treating gross revenue as profit inflates ROI, so the tool multiplies recovered revenue by the contribution margin you enter.
Not on one result. If returning customers keep buying, a calculation based only on the first purchase understates the payoff. Re-run it with several months of revenue per customer to see the range.