How to Use the Gacha Budget Simulator
Before spending on gacha pulls, find out whether your budget has a realistic chance of hitting your target. Enter your total spending cap, per-pull cost, the item's drop rate, and how many you want — the simulator shows expected drops, success probability, and how much more you'd need on average.
How the Probability Is Calculated
The calculator uses a normal distribution approximation of the binomial distribution. With n pulls at probability p, the mean drops are n×p and the standard deviation is √(n×p×(1−p)). The probability of getting at least your target is derived from this distribution.
Smart Budget Planning
If your success probability is below 50%, reaching your goal is unlikely with this budget alone. Check the "Average Budget Needed" and "Budget Shortfall" fields — they show the statistical minimum spending to average your target, helping you decide whether to save more or lower your expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
No — 99% still means a 1% chance of failure. In practice, about 1 in 100 players with that budget won't get the item by luck alone. Keep a small contingency reserve.
Pity guarantees a drop after N pulls, which raises your actual success rate above this calculation. Use this result as a worst-case estimate; your real odds with pity are better.
Yes. The normal approximation is less precise when the rate is below ~0.1% and n is small. For extremely rare items, treat the result as directional guidance rather than an exact number.