How to Use the Downgrade Recovery Cost Calculator
In games where a failed enhancement attempt can knock your item down a level, estimating cost as simply "1 divided by the success rate" badly understates what you'll actually spend. Every downgrade forces you to re-climb ground you already covered. This calculator takes your current and target level, success rate, downgrade-on-fail rate, and cost per attempt, then applies a Markov chain probability model to compute the true average number of attempts and expected total cost.
The underlying math sets up a system of equations for the expected number of attempts needed from every level up to the target: a success moves you up one level, some failures leave you in place, and the rest push you down one level. When the downgrade rate is 0%, the model collapses to a simple geometric distribution, and expected attempts equal exactly (target level - current level) divided by the success rate. Add any downgrade risk, though, and the expected cost climbs sharply because the model accounts for every detour back down and the climb back up.
Keep in mind this calculator assumes a constant success rate and downgrade rate across every level, which is a simplification - many real games lower success rates as levels climb. For a more accurate budget, you can run the calculation separately for each level range where rates change and add the results together.
Frequently Asked Questions
It's the probability that your current level drops by one on a failed attempt. It's a conditional probability - separate from failures that simply leave your level unchanged - specifically covering failures that also trigger a downgrade.
Using a probability model (a Markov chain) built from your success rate and downgrade rate, the calculator solves for the average number of attempts needed from each level to reach your target, then multiplies that by your cost per try. Any downgrade probability is folded in, accounting for the extra attempts spent climbing back up after being pushed down.
With no downgrade risk, expected attempts simplify to (target level - current level) divided by the success rate. For example, at a 10% success rate, raising a level by one takes an average of 10 attempts.