How to Use the Survival Game Probability Simulator
This simulator calculates the average number of survivors per round given a starting participant count and a fixed elimination probability per round. It runs multiple probabilistic simulations using a normal approximation to the binomial distribution and reports the average across all runs.
Use it to analyze how quickly a population thins out in games with elimination mechanics — think game design, probability education, or visualizing tournament attrition. With 50% elimination and 100 starting players, the expected count after 5 rounds is about 3. Increasing the simulation count produces results closer to the theoretical expected value N × (1−p)ʳ.
Frequently Asked Questions
The simulation is run that many times independently. The average result is displayed. More runs reduce random variation and produce a more stable estimate.
The current version applies the same elimination probability to every round. Per-round variation is not supported yet.
The simulation is stochastic — it uses random sampling. Running 1,000 simulations gives a very stable average, but small differences between runs are expected.